Mzere waukulu wa mabasi amagetsi aku China mu 2026 ndi: msika udzasintha kuchoka pa ndalama zothandizira kupita ku TCO, mabatire a 800V okwera mphamvu komanso okhalitsa adzakhala ofanana, kapangidwe kanzeru ka chitetezo kadzagwiritsidwa ntchito, kusintha kwa zinthu kudzakhala kwakukulu, kusinthana kwa mabatire ndi malonda a V2G kudzakwezedwa, kutumiza kunja kwapamwamba kudzapangidwa, ndipo kasamalidwe ka kutentha kudzakonzedwa mokwanira. Pansipa pali zomwe zikuchitika pakadali pano ndipo zitha kukhazikitsidwa mu 2026, zomwe zagawidwa ndi gawo.
1, Kapangidwe ka Msika: Kuwonjezeka pang'ono kwa voliyumu yonse, kusintha kwakukulu kwa kapangidwe kake, ulamuliro wa TCO
Malonda ndi kukula: Zikuyembekezeka kuti padzakhala mabasi atsopano 82000 amphamvu opitirira mamita 6 m'litali pofika chaka cha 2026 (+3.5%), okhala ndi kukula kwa msika wa yuan 48-55 biliyoni; Magetsi oyera amaposa 92%, ndipo kuchuluka kwa magalimoto a anthu onse kuli pafupi ndi 100%.
Kusintha kwa injini ya kukula: Tsalani bwino kudalira thandizo la ndalama zothandizira, * * TCO ya zaka 5 yotsika ndi 25% -35% kuposa magalimoto a dizilo * * imakhala chinthu chachikulu chomwe chikugulitsidwa; Kusiyana kwa mitengo pakati pa mafuta ndi magetsi, kukonza kochepa, mtengo wotsala wa mabatire, ndi ubwino wa kaboni kumapanga kuzungulira kotsekedwa.
Kusiyana kwa kapangidwe kake:
Mayendedwe akuluakulu a anthu onse (mamita 10-12): Kusintha katundu yemwe alipo ndiye njira yayikulu, yomwe ikukula pang'onopang'ono.
Pakati (mamita 8-10) ndi kuwala (mamita 6-8): kukula kwakukulu (komwe kwachitika ndi 39.6%), kuyang'ana kwambiri mayendedwe apaulendo akumatauni ndi akumidzi, sitima zoyendera alendo, maulendo apaulendo okonzedwa, ndi ntchito zoyendera paki/pabwalo la ndege.
Kukweza kukhazikika kwa magalimoto: Yutong, BYD, ndi CRRC Electric ali ndi gawo la msika loposa 70%, ndipo mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono ndi apakatikati akuwongolera kuchotsedwa kwawo.
2, Ukadaulo wa batri: Kutalika kwa nthawi yayitali, chitetezo chapamwamba, mkhalidwe wolimba pang'ono wogwiritsidwa ntchito pa bolodi
Kapangidwe kabwino ka zamagetsi zamagalimoto okhala ndi nthawi yofanana: muyezo waukulu umaphatikizapo lithiamu iron phosphate (LFP) ya zaka 15/kilomita 1.5 miliyoni, yomwe ili ndi nthawi yofanana ndi galimoto yonse, yopanda batire yosinthira moyo wonse, komanso TCO yokonzedwa bwino kwambiri.
Kuchuluka kwa mphamvu:
Ma model apamwamba: Mabatire a semi-state amayikidwa m'magulu ang'onoang'ono, okhala ndi mphamvu ya 180-220Wh/kg komanso mtunda wa 500-600km.
Mtundu wa kutchuka: LFP yakwezedwa kufika pa 160Wh/kg, ndi mtunda wapakati pa 400-450km pamabasi a 12 metres.
Miyezo yolimba yachitetezo yomwe yakhazikitsidwa: batire yopanda kufalikira kwa kutentha, kasamalidwe ka kutentha padziko lonse lapansi, chenjezo lofunikira la AI lothawa kutentha; Kuthawa kwa selo limodzi sikufalikira ndipo kumakwaniritsa miyezo yokhwima kwambiri yadziko lonse.
Kuchepetsa mtengo: Mtengo wapakati wa mabatire a LFP ndi ≤ 550 yuan/kWh, ndipo mtengo wogulira umachepetsedwa kufika nthawi 1.3 kuposa wa magalimoto a dizilo.
3, Mphamvu yobwezeretsanso: makamaka kutengera 800V fast charging, kusinthana kwa mabatire akuluakulu, V2G pilot
Pulatifomu yamagetsi okwera 800V imakhala yotchuka:
Mu 2026, gawo la magalimoto atsopano okhala ndi 800V lidzakhala ≥ 60%, ndipo mphamvu yochaja idzakhala 350-500kW.
Imachaja mpaka 80% mu mphindi 10, kudzaza mphamvu kwa 300km, yogwirizana ndi ntchito yamphamvu kwambiri.
**Chotenthetsera cha filimu chokhuthala kwambiri (HVCH)* * imalowa m'malo mwa PTC kwathunthu, ndi mphamvu ≥ 95%, yankho
Malo osinthira mabatire okwana 1800+, omwe amakhudza 85% ya mizinda yofanana ndi chigawo; mabatire amasinthidwa kwa mphindi 3-5, ndipo amagwira ntchito bwino kuposa magalimoto amafuta.
Kuyang'ana kwambiri pa mizere ya sitima yapamtunda yothamanga kwambiri, mayendedwe a anthu akumatauni ndi akumidzi, ma eyapoti/mapaki; kulekanitsa magalimoto ndi magetsi a BaaS kumachepetsa malire ogula magalimoto (ndi 30% -40%).
Kuyesa kwa malonda a V2G: Mizinda 10 kuphatikiza Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, ndi Shenzhen idzayesa mabasi amagetsi ngati malo osungira mphamvu zoyenda kuti itenge nawo gawo pakumeta gridi, ndi kuwonjezeka kwa pachaka kwa 20000 mpaka 30000 yuan pagalimoto iliyonse.
Kufalitsa malo osungira ndi kutchaja magetsi a photovoltaic: photovoltaic+kusungira mphamvu+kuchaja mwachangu, kuchepetsa ndalama zochaja ndi 20% -30%, ndikuchepetsa kupanikizika pa gridi yamagetsi.
4, Luntha: Chitetezo choyamba, kasinthidwe ka L2 + muyezo, kuyendetsa galimoto kawiri ndi kulamulira kawiri
Kusintha kwa kapangidwe ka chitetezo: kuyendetsa magalimoto awiriawiri ndi kuwongolera magalimoto awiriawiri (makamaka zomwe Yutong imalimbikitsa):
Woyendetsa galimotoyo akuyang'aniridwa ndi anthu, wolumikizidwa ndi anthu, wogwiritsa ntchito intaneti mokwanira, osasiya; Dalaivala ayenera kuyamba ndi udindo wake kuti apewe chiopsezo cha "kulowererapo mwadzidzidzi pambuyo poti walephera".
Kutsimikizika kwa makilomita miliyoni, muyezo wa mitundu yatsopano mu 2026.
Kapangidwe koyenera ka mulingo wa L2: kuchuluka kwa msonkhano * * ≥ 65%, kuphatikiza ACC, AEB, kusunga njira, kuyang'anira dalaivala wa DMS, mawonekedwe ozungulira a 360 ° * *.
Kufika pamalo otere L3/L4: BRT yotsekedwa paki, Kugwira ntchito zamalonda kwa mabasi oyendera pa eyapoti; Woyendetsa L3 woyendetsa anthu pamsewu waukulu, ndi kuyendetsa anthu ndi makina ngati njira yayikulu, akutsutsa kuti L5 ikhale yopanda anthu.
Kuphatikiza kwa mtambo wa magalimoto: Kuyang'anira zombo za AI, kuyang'anira nthawi yeniyeni, kukonza zinthu molosera, kukonza mphamvu, kukonza nthawi mwanzeru, kukonza bwino magwiridwe antchito a 15% -20%.
5,Kusamalira magalimoto ndi kutentha: yopepuka, yophatikizika, yokhala ndi mphamvu zambiri
Zopepuka: Kugwiritsa ntchito kwambiri aluminiyamu, ulusi wa kaboni, ndi chitsulo champhamvu kwambiri, kuchepetsa kulemera ndi 10% -25% ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu ndi 8% -15%; Kulemera kwa curb ya mamita 12 * * ≤ matani 12 * *.
Kuphatikiza kwa magetsi amphamvu: kukweza kwathunthu kuchokera ku 400V kupita ku 800V, kuphatikiza kuyendetsa kwa mota ndi zamagetsi DC/DC 、 Kuphatikiza kwa magetsi amphamvu kumachepetsa voliyumu ndi 30% ndikuwonjezera magwiridwe antchito ndi 5% -8%.
Kusintha kwa Kusamalira Kutentha (Chinsinsi):
Kuphatikiza kwachinayi mu chimodzi: batire + mota + kulamulira zamagetsi + kasamalidwe ka kutentha kwa nyumba, kubwezeretsa kutentha kophatikizana, kutentha kotsika kutentha, ndi kuyeretsa kutentha kotentha kwambiri.
Kutentha kwa HVCH kwamphamvu kwambiri: kokhazikika pa nsanja ya 800V, m'malo mwa PTC yachikhalidwe, ndi magwiridwe antchito ≥ 95%, nthawi yayitali, kuyankha mwachangu, komanso kuchepetsa kwa 10% -15% pakugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zochepa kutentha.
Kuziziritsa ndi kutentha mwachindunji kwa batri: kulondola kwa kuwongolera kutentha * * ± 1 ℃, nthawi ya moyo imakulitsidwa ndi 20% * *.
6, Zochitika: Kuyambira zonse mpaka zapadera, zogawika m'magulu komanso zophulika
Mayendedwe a anthu okhala mumzinda ndi kumidzi: Magalimoto opepuka a mamita 6-8 okhala ndi mtengo wotsika kwambiri, amayenda mtunda wautali, amatha kukwera kwambiri, komanso amalumikiza "mtunda womaliza".
Basi ya alendo: 8-12 metres, mphamvu ya batri yokwera (400-500kWh), mtunda wautali (500km+), chitonthozo chapamwamba (kuimika mpweya, chete).
Maulendo apaulendo/ma shuttle amakampani okonzedwa mwamakonda: chitetezo chambiri, kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zochepa, kukonza nthawi mwanzeru, ndikuyang'ana kwambiri pa TCO yabwino kwambiri.
Sitima ya pa eyapoti/paki/malo okongola: mamita 6-8, kutembenuka kwakukulu, chofunika kwambiri pakusinthana mabatire, L2+wanzeru.
7, Tumizani: Kuchokera pamtengo wotsika mpaka pamtundu wapamwamba kwambiri
Kukula kwakukulu kwa katundu wotumizidwa kunja: Akuyembekezeka kutumiza magalimoto 20000 (+15%) pofika chaka cha 2026, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti magalimoto onse apitirire 25% ya malonda onse agulitsidwe.
Kapangidwe ka msika:
Europe: Basi yapamwamba ya mamita 12/ulendo, 800V, yotetezeka kwambiri, yanzeru, yokhala ndi mtengo wa yuniti kuyambira 300000 mpaka 500000 euros.
Kum'mwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia/Middle East/Latin America: mitundu yotsika mtengo, 6-10 mamita LFP 、 Moyo wautali.
Kusintha kwa mawonekedwe: kuchokera ku kutumiza magalimoto kunja → Kumanga fakitale ya KD → kutulutsa ukadaulo → kugwira ntchito kwa mtundu; Yutong ndi BYD akhala miyezo yapadziko lonse lapansi.
8, Ndondomeko ndi miyezo: Miyezo yolimba yachitetezo, kuzama kwa mpweya wa kaboni wowirikiza, ndi kubwezeretsanso kotsekedwa
Miyezo yofunikira yachitetezo cha dziko: chenjezo la kutentha kwa batri, kuchepetsa kufalikira kwa kutentha, chitetezo champhamvu chamagetsi; Miyezo yokhwima kwambiri padziko lonse yoletsa moto, kuphulika, ndi kutayikira kwa magalimoto.
Kuyendetsa mpweya wa kaboni kawiri: cholinga cha magetsi 100% pa mayendedwe a anthu onse; Kugulitsa mpweya wa kaboni ndi kuchotsera mphamvu zamagetsi zobiriwira kumawonjezera magwiridwe antchito azachuma.
Kubwezeretsanso mabatire mozungulira: kugwiritsa ntchito mabatire mopitirira muyeso + kukonzanso zinthu zokhwima, kuonjezera mtengo wotsalira wa batire ndi 15% -20%, kuchepetsanso TCO.
Nthawi yotumizira: Meyi-28-2026
